The question of whether or not conventional fuels have reached the end of their useful life cycle can be easily answered by considering how society meets its requirements for fuels which power its vehicles, namely oil and gas.
In Canada, gasoline and diesel currently continue to meet most on and off-road transportation fuel requirements, a consumption rate of about 75 billion liters annually. Today, less than two percent of passenger vehicles are fueled by alternative sources of energy, such as electricity, natural gas, propane and renewable fuels.
Regulations Will Not Change Consumption
The Canadian Petroleum Products Institute (CPPI) has expressed concern that some policy-makers consider that it is easy to change from one form of fuel to another, and that a mobile society can eliminate dependence on oil or even reduce it, through some mystical mandating or regulating process that will automatically lead to alternative fuels.
The federal government has announced its intention to mandate a national 2 percent biodiesel requirement before the necessary blending infrastructure can be put in place, and according to Peter Boag, "this is a prime example of this flawed thinking."(Financial Post, "Fossil fuels still in our future," Peter Boag, Dec. 9, 2010)
A much better plan, according to the CPPI is to run a parallel track, one which works to develop new fuel alternatives while maintaining and improving the existing fuel supply, making it more environmentally friendly at the same time. As Boag notes, "there is absolutely no question that alternative fuels can and will play an increasingly important role in meeting the needs of Canadians. But we are not there yet."
Checking Out the Assumptions About New fuels
Have gasoline and diesel fuels reached the end off their useful life, or are they even close? There are some assumptions being made by various organizations and energy pundits that it is possible to eliminate or minimize the use of fossil fuels and substitute alternative energy sources virtually overnight, and that the new fuels are more environmentally friendly, cheaper, and offer the same energy equivalent.
However, these assumptions needed to be fleshed out, examined and put into a realistic perspective. Biofuels are not a large contributor to the world's transportation fuel mix. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), biofuels provided less than 2 percent of the world's transportation fuel needs in 2008. And even 40 years from now, the IEA predicts that biofuels may account for only 25 percent to 30 percent of the world's road transportation fuel mix.(Boag)
Gasoline and Diesel Are Energy-dense
One of the reason for the dominance of gasoline and diesel is that these fuels are 'energy-dense.' This definition of these types of fuel mean that they can hey store large amounts of energy in a relatively small space and are therefore ideally suited for transportation applications. By comparison, ethanol, the most widely used alternative fuel today, contains only two-thirds of the energy content of gasoline.
Alternative fuels being developed today from various feedstocks are required to have two characteristics which define gasoline and diesel: capable of demonstrating a cost-equivalent relationship, and ensuring they can emulate the performance characteristics of gasoline and diesel.
Pollution Caused by Oil and Gasoline Has Been Reduced
Gasoline and oil used by cars and trucks cause tailpipe emissions, however, considerable reduction of emission has been accomplished in the past several years. Lead has been eliminated. Sulfur levels have been reduced by over 90 percent, and benzene emissions have been cut by more than half. Production processes have also been substantially improved, as illustrated by the reductions which have occurred over the past 15 years.
From 1993 to 2008, atmospheric emissions of nine of the 10 most commonly emitted substances declined by amounts ranging from 61 percent to 89 percent. These reductions have been achieved at the same time that product output from refineries grew by 20 percent. Since 1996, refinery carbon dioxide emissions have been reduced by nearly 10 percent.
Is There an Electric Car in Your Future?
One of the popular myths about electric vehicles is that they are really environmentally friendly. But these vehicles are only as green as the source they plug into, and in North America, hydrocarbons are used to generate much of the electricity, whether it is used in industry, in homes, or to power electrical vehicles. The environmental impacts have only been moved out of sight -- from the highways to the power generation plants.
Smarter and more efficient use of existing conventional fuels can lead to a sustainable energy future for Canadians, without driving the country into huge deficits in efforts to subsidize green energy. Other countries have gambled billions of dollars of taxpayers money to subsidize the development of renewable energy. Germany, for example, spent $9.6 billion last year on its fed-in-tariff program, and across Europe, theses tariffs amounted to $19.5 billion. The U.S. spent $18.2 billion on clean energy subsidies last year, and China provided about $2 billion, but it also supports the renewable sector through low-interest loans..
Natural Gas Will be a Primary Fossil Fuel Source
Shale gas, which until two years ago, did not exist as a viable fuel source, has recently begun to show signs of becoming a major 'fuel player,' as significant deposits are uncovered in various parts of North America.,
A short-fall in natural gas was a common perception, until 2008, however, in the past two years, new gas extraction technologies and the discovery of vast reserves of shale gas in Pennsylvania, Alberta and Quebec, have prompted a dramatic decrease in the price of gas. Moreover, shale gas emits 60 percent less carbon, a bonus for carbon emission reduction. It is likely that the world will see a surplus of low-priced gas for decades.
What about oil? All of the media hype about electric cars and other sources of fuel notwithstanding, gasoline and diesel will probably remain the main fuel sources for the transportation sector - cars, trucks, and airplanes - for decades.
Duane Sharp - I am a retired professional engineer (electronics), with over 40 years of writing experience in technology topics, with a focus on the IT ...
